GOP Midterm Bonus 'Not Even Being Talked About'-Paul Manafort.
Ron DeSantis' 'Polarizing Nature' Could Mean Tight Governor Race: Pollsters.
Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray wrote in early July that for the first time in the past five years, more than 4 in 10 survey respondents said they were "struggling to remain where they are financially" and less than one in 10 Americans identified their situation as improving. However, Republicans were more trusted on the majority of key issues, including the economy.Ī new ABC News/Ipsos survey found that projected voters have more faith in the GOP handling seven out of 11 key issues, including the economy, crime, inflation, immigration, the Russia-Ukraine war, gas prices and taxes. "Typically, voters like some degree of balance: They do not want one party to have unfettered control of all levers of government."ĭemocrats were more trusted when it comes to gun violence, abortion rights and climate change. "In striking down Roe and other popular laws like restrictions against the concealed carry of firearms, the Supreme Court has in some ways undermined one of the traditional reasons that the president's party tends to lose seats at the midterms," Silver said. The recent ballot initiative in Kansas to preserve abortion rights statewide may be just a precursor. He argued that the Supreme Court's decisions on abortion and firearms may have provided a life preserver of sorts to the Democratic Party. "The national environment is quite poor for Democrats," FiveThirtyEight Editor-In-Chief Nate Silver wrote, acknowledging that the party in control of the presidency has lost House seats in all but two of the past 21 midterm elections. New projections simulating the election 40,000 times showed Democrats as "slightly favored" in the Senate while the GOP was favored to take back the House. In late July, FiveThirtyEight projections showed that Democrats for the first time edged out Republicans in terms of winning the Senate. CBS News and Emerson polls conducted in July also favored the GOP this November by 2 points and 1 point, respectively, while Economist/YouGov, Monmouth University and Politico/Morning Consult polls conducted between July 28 and August 2 leaned Democrat by 5, 3 and 2 points, respectively. The Real Clear Politics generic congressional outlook favors Republicans by just one-tenth of a point. Democrats have started closing the gap with Republicans in polls, and some polls even favor Democrats keeping control of the Senate. As inflation continues to negatively affect Americans' view of the economy and the presidency, some polls indicate that the originally perceived Republican stronghold on the November midterms is not as sturdy as it was just a couple of months ago.Īn originally dreary midterm election outlook for Democrats may be salvaged due to recently passed legislation on guns, in addition to heightened momentum in response to the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v.